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Gold and silver end 2025 volatile after record rallies; Goldman Sachs targets $4,900/oz for gold

Precious metals retreated on December 31 as investors booked profits, though both assets posted triple-digit gains for the year. Analysts forecast further upside in 2026 as central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainty persist.

66%Gold annual return 2025
Profit-taking or a shift in momentum?
Image: Finsamudra LinkedIn archive
161%Silver annual return 2025
$4,900/ozGoldman Sachs gold target 2026

Gold slipped 0.4% on the final trading day of 2025 to ₹1,36,124 per 10g (approximately $4,334/oz), cooling after hitting an all-time high of $4,549 earlier in the month. The pullback reflects profit-taking rather than fundamental weakness.

Silver fell more sharply, dropping over 6% to ₹2,35,952/kg on December 31, a reversal following a 12% surge in the previous session. The metal's volatility highlights retail and institutional repositioning ahead of year-end.

The year as a whole was historic for precious metals. Gold surged 66% through 2025, while silver soared 161%, driven by central bank purchases, industrial demand, and persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties.

Looking ahead, Wall Street remains constructive. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold will reach $4,900/oz in 2026, while BNP Paribas sees silver climbing to $100/oz. These targets reflect expectations that safety demand will sustain prices amid evolving monetary policy and global risks.

For Indian investors and commodity traders, the volatility underscores the importance of timing entries and exits in precious metals markets. Year-end profit-taking is typical behavior before fresh rallies.

Why it matters

For loan connectors and DSAs operating in India's credit space, precious metals volatility is a secondary concern—but the underlying driver is not. Central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty that boost gold also typically reduce credit demand and increase risk premiums. When investors flee to safety, loan demand slows and borrower creditworthiness tightens, pressuring DSAs and lenders to recalibrate margins and tighten underwriting.

The 2026 outlook for gold ($4,900/oz) and silver ($100/oz) signals sustained economic uncertainty. For NBFCs and DSAs, this environment calls for defensive portfolio management: focus on secured lending, working capital facilities, and borrowers with hard assets (gold-backed loans, asset-light operations). Bullion-backed lending could see renewed interest as borrowers look to leverage rising collateral values.

Sources

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Finsamudra DeskNewsroom · 31 Dec 2025, 3:39 pm IST
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